Simple Soccer an Easy Soccer Betting Strategy With a Positive Expected Return

Find out how to bet on soccer online with our in-depth betting guide on the beautiful game. Check out how to place your soccer bets, including the Premier League, Champions League, World Cup, and other top global competitions.

Claim a Risk-Free First Bet up to $1,000

New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. Full T&C apply.

Up To $1500 Risk Free First Bet

New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.

Bet $50 Get $200 in Free Bets

21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&C apply

100% First Deposit Match up to $250 with promo code NYPBONUS

New players only, 21+. NY, NJ, MI, AZ, VA only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full T&C apply.

$1000 No Sweat First Bet

21+. New customers only. AZ, CT, IA, IL, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, WV, WY only. T&C apply

Bet $20, Get $100 in Free Bets

21+. New customers only. CO & VA Only. T&Cs apply.

Risk Free Bet Up to $1000 + One Free Month of Fubo TV

New users only, 21 or older. Available in IA, AZ only. Full T&C apply.

Bet $1 Get $200 in Bet Credits with NYP365

21+. New customers only. NJ only. Full T&C apply.

Bet $20, Get $100 in Free Bets

21+; New Customers only. NJ &; PA only. Full T&Cs apply.

Get a $250 First Deposit Match

21+, New Customers Only. NJ and CT only. Full T&Cs apply.

100% Deposit Match Up to $500

New users only, 21+. Offer available in CO only. Full T&C apply.

More on How to Bet on Soccer

Popular Types of Soccer Bets

Important Dates on This Year's Soccer Calendar

How to Watch Global Soccer Matches

How to Research Soccer Bets

Soccer Betting Strategies

Soccer Betting DO's and DON'TS

A History of Soccer

The Best Soccer Betting Apps

Betting on Soccer FAQ's

The Most Popular Types of Soccer Bets

All odds and statistics cited below are reflective of June 16, 2022, and are subject to movement.

The Three-Way Moneyline

Whereas most sports offer only two moneyline markets, soccer offers three. Bettors can still place wagers on each side to win the match, but the only difference is a draw moneyline is also offered. Thus, if the match finishes level at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time, the draw moneyline is paid out.

Here's an example of a three-way moneyline for the upcoming Premier League season:

Team	Three-Way Moneyline Price
West Ham United	+600
Draw	+400
Manchester City	-250

Even though the draw moneyline is offered, most experienced soccer bettors will steer clear of that moneyline. Last season, only 17.3 percent of the 380 Premier League fixtures finished level. In the previous season (2020-21) only 15.5 percent of all matches finished level.

So, although the high payouts can be tempting, sustaining profits by betting draws can be a tricky proposition. For most soccer bettors, it's recommended to stick to this next betting option.

The Goal-Line

Think of the goal-line as soccer's version of the spread. However, unlike other sports, the goal-line will usually be a small number.

Most goal-lines will range from a +2.5 to a PK for underdogs and a PK to -2.5 for favorites in Europe's top domestic competitions. For those unfamiliar, a PK goal-line — also referred to as draw, no bet — wholly eliminates the draw from consideration. In the event the match ends level, all bettors would see their stake refunded (more below).

Unlike the three-way moneyline, will give bettors only two options. Here's an example of a soccer goal-line:

Team + Goal-Line	Odds
West Ham United (+1.5)	-135
Manchester City (-1.5)	+105

In the above example, the Manchester City goal-line would cash if they win the match outright by two or more goals. However, if West Ham United wins, draws or loses by one, their goal-line would cash.

Most soccer bettors will encounter goal-lines with half-goals involved. This helps the sportsbook force a decision either way and avoid a push. However, there will be instances where whole numbers are involved. Here's an example of that:

Team + Goal-Line	Odds
Leeds United (PK)	-175
Wolverhampton Wanderers (PK)	+135

In this example, all bettors would see their money refunded if the match finishes in a draw. Bettors backing Leeds United would win if they win the match, whereas Wolverhampton Wanderers bettors would win their bet if they win the match.

The other most common whole-number spread is +1/-1. In that instance, bettors laying a goal with the favorite would win if the favorite wins by two or more goals and would get their money back if they win by a single goal. Bettors who back the underdog (+1) would win if the underdog wins or draws and would get their money back if the underdog loses by exactly one goal.

The final goal-line example worth mentioning is somewhat rare but, depending on where you shop, is worth understanding. Soccer bettors refer to this as the "asian handicap" and will involve goal-lines that utilizing quarter-goals. Here's an example:

Team + Goal-Line	Odds
Leeds United (-0.25)	-115
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+0.25)	-115

Bettors wagering into an asian handicap will see their bet split between two separate goal lines.

For example, those bettors who choose to lay -0.25 with Leeds United will see half their stake placed on Leeds (PK) and half on Leeds (-0.5). The only way to win both bets is if Leeds win the match outright. However, bettors can get half their stake back if the match finishes level.

The other common asian handicap line is -0.75/+0.75. Those bettors choosing to lay -0.75 goals with the favorite will see their wager split between -0.5 and -1. Thus, the only way to cash both halves is if the favorite wins by two goals. However, if they win by one, they'll cash half and get half their stake back.

The Total

This soccer market is fairly self-explanatory and is the most similar to normal American sports. The only difference? The totals will usually be quite small — normally, soccer bettors will see totals ranging from two to four goals — and will feature higher juice on the favorite.

Here's an example of a soccer total, using the West Ham United-Manchester City match:

Total Goals	Odds
Total Over 2.5 Goals	-175
Total Under 2.5 Goals	+130

If the match features three or more combined goals from the two sides, the over would cash. However, if there are two or fewer combined goals, under 2.5 goals would cash.

Like with the goal-line, bettors will also encounter asian totals at some sportsbooks. Here's an example of an asian total:

Total Goals	Odds
Over 2.75 Goals	-140
Under 2.75 Goals	+110

This works exactly the same as with the asian handicap. Those bettors who take over 2.75 goals will see their bet split between over 2.5 goals and over 3 goals. Thus, at least four goals would need to be scored for both halves of the bet to cash. If a match, however, finishes 2-1, bettors would cash half their bet and see the other half refunded.

On the flip-side, those bettors who take under 2.75 goals would split their wager between the same numbers and would still need two or fewer goals to cash both halves. However, if the match lands on three, they would get half their wager back.

Props or Proposition Bets

Prop bets is a catch all term for types of bets that are not directly related to moneyline betting. They are very popular among bettors as they offer different ways to bet on soccer. Here a few different types of props that bettors will see offered at various sportsbooks:

• First/Anytime Goalscorer. The former is a bet on which player will score the first goal of the game, while the latter is a bet on a player to score at any time in the game.

• Both Teams to Score. This is a bet on if each team will score in the match, with both a "yes" and "no" option available. If either or both teams fail to score in the match, the "no" side of the market would cash. Here's an example of that market:

Both Teams to Score	Odds
Both Teams to Score – "Yes"	-125
Both Teams to Score – "No"	-110

• First/Last Team to Score . Instead of betting on players here, you're betting on a team. One important note — there are three options for each of these markets. Bettors can take either team to score the first goal of the game or the last goal of the game, but there's a third option: "No Goal." If the match finishes 0-0, that market would cash. Here's an example:

First Team to Score	Odds
Manchester City	-330
West Ham United	+225
No Goal	+1300

• Correc t Score . This is a bet on the final score of the game, with all options available in plus-money. However, there's a reason for those high payouts as bettors get only a single outcome. Here's an example of a correct score market for West Ham United-Manchester City:

Correct Score Bet	Odds
West Ham 1, Manchester City 0	+2000
West Ham 2, Manchester City 0	+4500
West Ham 2, Manchester City 1	+2500
West Ham 3, Manchester City 0	+13000
West Ham 3, Manchester City 1	+6000
West Ham 3, Manchester City 2	+5500
West Ham 4, Manchester City 1	+13000
West Ham 4, Manchester City 2	+16000
West Ham 0, Manchester City 0	+1600
West Ham 1, Manchester City 1	+900
West Ham 2, Manchester City 2	+1900
West Ham 3, Manchester City 3	+5500
Manchester City 1, West Ham 0	+800
Manchester City 2, West Ham 0	+700
Manchester City 2, West Ham 1	+850
Manchester City 3, West Ham 0	+950
Manchester City 3, West Ham 1	+1100
Manchester City 3, West Ham 2	+2200
Manchester City 4, West Ham 0	+1600
Manchester City 4, West Ham 1	+1800
Manchester City 4, West Ham 2	+3500
Manchester City 4, West Ham 3	+10000
Manchester City 5, West Ham 0	+3500
Manchester City 5, West Ham 1	+4000
Manchester City 5, West Ham 2	+7000
Manchester City 5, West Ham 3	+13000
Manchester City 6, West Ham 0	+6500
Manchester City 6, West Ham 1	+8000
Manchester City 6, West Ham 2	+16000

• Team Totals. Instead of betting on the combined total of goals between the two teams, bettors can elect to bet on the goal total of a single team. In that instance, goals scored by the other team have no impact on the wager.

Important Dates on This Year's Soccer Calendar

Start Date	Event
Friday, August 6th	Start of 2022-23 Premier League Season
Tuesday, September 6th	Beginning of 2022-23 UEFA Champions League
Monday, November 21	Start of 2022 FIFA World Cup
Sunday, December 18	2022 FIFA World Cup Final

In order to account for the winter World Cup in Qatar, the European domestic leagues will start earlier than normal. The Bundesliga will be the first major domestic competition to start of August 5th with the Premier League starting a day later.

Both La Liga in Spain and Serie A in Italy will kick off their respective campaigns a week later on August 12th.

All of the major European domestic leagues will break a short time before the World Cup begins and will re-start at the conclusion of the world's biggest tournament.

Check out our full guide on betting on soccer.

AFP via Getty Images

How to Watch Global Soccer Matches

The U.S. television rights for all of Europe's domestic competitions are spread across a few TV networks, so those interested in variety will need to head a few different places.

Those interested in the English Premier League can watch on USA network as well as your local NBC affiliate. Matches are also streamed on Peacock, NBC's digital streaming service. CBS holds the rights to Serie A, the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League, all of which can be streamed via Paramount+.

Finally, ESPN owns the rights to the Bundesliga and La Liga. Both of those league's matches can be found on ESPN+, a digital service from the world wide leader.

As for the 2022 World Cup, soccer enthusiasts can catch all the action from Qatar on Fox Sports.

How to Research Soccer Bets

As with any sports betting, it's important to do some research before placing any bets. There are plenty of statistics and form websites where you can research teams, previous fixtures, form and various statistics. We've picked out some of the best sites to help craft your soccer bets.

Site	Content
fbref.com	Great for researching league-wide trends and individual team metrics
fotmob.com	Provides further data insights and deeper league-wide statistics
actionnetwork.com/soccer	Tips & Picks on soccer, with excellent betting offers available.
theanalyst.com/na/sport/football/	A website from Opta. Provides good expected goal data from all situations on both teams and players.

Soccer Betting Strategies

Want to make informed soccer bets using some strategies experts utilize? We've selected a few to help you make more winning bets.

Positive/Negative Regression Based on Expected Goals

One of the most unique aspects of soccer data is the use of expected goals. Put simply, this is the number of times a team is expected to score in any given match based on a number of factors (proximity to goal, angle, etc).

Experienced bettors will take this data and use it to examine whether teams are running hot, cold or according to its underlying expected goal data. From there, they can determine whether teams can expect positive, negative or neutral regression to the mean in their future matches. Here's an example of a team overperforming its xG data:

In the above example, this team has a -2 goal difference in four matches, but a -4.4 expected goal differential. On the flip-side, here's an example of what an underperformance would look like:

In this example, the side has a -1 goal differential in all four matches, but a +3.3 expected goal differential. Thus, we should expect positive regression in their upcoming fixtures.

All that said, it's important to recognize the possibility teams will continue to overperform their underlying metrics.

For example, in last year's Premier League season, Wolverhampton Wanderers finished a -5 goal differential across all 38 matches, but a -24.4 expected goal differential. Just in the second half of the season, Wolves earned a result in 10 of 19 matches despite losing 17 of 19 on expected goals.

Style of Play Advantages

Another good strategy to handicap individual matches is to examine whether one team will bring a particular statistical advantage to the match.

For example, one popular strategy I like to employ is how teams perform on set pieces and how teams defend in those situations. If a team arrives with an advantage in that category, it can be easier for them to generate high-danger chances and get on the scoreboard.

Another metric I like to use to handicap the moneyline and goal-line is how teams perform against pressure. In the Premier League, especially, some teams just don't have the capacity to perform against teams whose forwards will continuously pressure defenders and midfielders in the hopes of winning the ball and generating a scoring chance.

Take Watford last season. The Hornets ranked dead-last in the Premier League in terms of their successful pressure percentage allowed. And, in 10 matches against the five-best pressure sides, they went 1-9-0 (W-L-D) and conceded 22 expected goals in those 10 matches.

Another style of play strategy that be utilized for betting the total is direct speed. Bettors can find this stat over at Opta and can tell bettors how quickly teams like to play. Whereas some teams prefer to be more methodical in the build-up, others just like to go. That can lead to more expected goals.

This is evidenced by the matches between Aston Villa and Burnley, the two teams with the quickest direct speeds. In two fixtures between those two sides, there were six total goals on 6.4 expected.

Home/Road Splits

Especially in the Premier League, home-field advantage is incredibly important and teams can often have drastic differences between their home and road outputs.

Take Crystal Palace last season. At home, manager Patrick Viera's side was brilliant — it had a +10 goal differential on a +10.2 expected goal differential, the sixth-best xGDiff in the Premier League. But on the road, the Eagles had a -6 goal differential on a -4.8 expected goal differential.

Jean-Philippe Mateta celebrates with teammates after a goal.

Getty Images

That's indicative of a broader trend in the English top flight — most sides will perform much better at home. Across the last four seasons, only 24 of 80 teams finished the season with a positive road xGDiff. On the flip-side, 45 of 80 teams finished with a positive expected goal differential at home across the last four seasons.

As a result, I have found it wise to try and find home sides to back, especially those sides that are getting a goal or a goal-and-a-half on the goal-line.

Soccer Betting Do's and Don'ts

DO's

• Wait for Lineups to Come Out . Sometimes, it can prove wise to wait until teams release their Starting XI's — one hour before kickoff — before placing your bets. Although this is when the lines tend to move most drastically, whether a particular player is available can have a huge impact on a match.
• Take Advantage of (Lack of) Motivation. One of my favorite handicapping angles is betting against teams that have already been relegated. Last season, Norwich City played four matches after they were officially relegated. The results? Zero wins, one draw, three losses and 10.2 xGA. Essentially, teams that know they have nothing play for will play like it.
• Bet on Underdogs. Global soccer is highly unpredictable and will see plenty of upsets. Combine that with the aforementioned home/road trends and bettors should steer clear of betting only favorites. So, whether you take an underdog outright on the moneyline or on the goal-line, bettors should always give the dogs a chance.

DON'TS

• Bet Parlays. This goes hand-in-hand with the previous advice, but parlays in soccer are fickle to say the least. Plus, given how extensive some soccer betting menus are at various sportsbooks, it's quite easy to find a single market that promises a high payout (if that's your goal).
• Bet with Emotion. It's quite easy for soccer bettors to want to bet on their favorite teams, but that can often cloud your judgement. Instead, try to find angles with teams you don't support and can evaluate objectively.
• Bet the Leagues You Don't Know . Similarly to college football or basketball, there are a ton of global leagues and competitions in soccer. Rather than trying to bet all of them, focus on a specific league or two where you know there's an edge.

A Brief History of Soccer

Soccer can be traced back all the way back to 206 BC, with records of the Chinese military kicking a ball to supplement their training, according to snapsoccer.com.

Further, the European medieval period saw the game expand into the countries with popular domestic competitions we recognize today. What's now known as the English Premier League formed all the way back in 1888 and was known as the Football League. In 1892, it was re-branded to become the Football League First Division.

Fast forward exactly one century and the English top-flight was once again re-branded. This time, it became known as the English Premier League.

Other top domestic leagues started much later. Both Serie A and La Liga launched their first campaign in 1929, while the German Bundesliga did not have its first full season until 1963.

Finally, the UEFA Champions League did not begin until the 1992 campaign after being re-branded from the European Cup, which launched in 1955. The other top international competition — the FIFA World Cup — was in 1930 and has since been played every four years.

The Best Soccer Betting Apps

Betting on soccer can also be done from mobile devices, with the best sportsbooks all offering fantastic mobile betting apps for you to wager on. The following apps are the best to bet on soccer with:

App	iOS	Android	App Store Reviews	Google Play Store Reviews
Caesars	Yes	Yes	4.6 (31K)	4.2 (12.6K)
Fanduel	Yes	Yes	4.8 (574K)	4.7 (86.8K)
BetMGM	Yes	Yes	4.8 (97K)	4.4 (7.44K)
PointsBet	Yes	Yes	4.7 (20K)	4.6 (5.06K)

• Customer reviews are accurate as of June 2022.

How to Bet on Soccer FAQ's

Is it legal to bet on Soccer?

Yes, it is completely legal to bet on soccer matches at licensed online sportsbooks. Like other sports, there are no restrictions on placing real money bets on soccer, as long as online sports betting is legal in your state.

Where can I bet on Soccer?

You can bet on soccer at many of the best online sportsbooks. Check out the best online sports betting sites to place your soccer bets with here.

What are the best Soccer bets?

The best soccer bets are different for each bettor. Many would consider prop and futures bets as the best, as these can generate larger odds compared to traditional betting options. Moneyline and totals are still strong ways to bet, but the odds are generally shorter.

Are there Soccer prop bets?

Yes, there are soccer prop bets. Unlike moneyline betting, prop bets in soccer include first and anytime goalscorer, the correct score of the match, the first and last team to score and whether both teams will score in the match. Depending on which soccer prop markets bettors choose to play, the prop bets often have longer odds, meaning larger potential payouts.

How much can you make betting on Soccer?

The money you make from betting on soccer depends on many factors. To give a simple answer to this question, the quality of selections and betting strategy are arguably the two most important factors.

upchurchmagas2000.blogspot.com

Source: https://nypost.com/article/how-to-bet-on-soccer/

Share this post